Tuesday, 30 August 2011

A Hard Slog for £50

As you can see below, I spent over four hours trading the horses across 51 races. It was a hard slog in which I had to start again mid session having made a loss of £39 on one race. In the end I came away with profit of just over £50 which isn't a bad wage for four hours work but when you look at it as £1 per race it really is a disappointing result. You will notice that I dabbled in a couple of WC events too.

There is nothing that jumps out of todays inplay football games. There are plenty of them but they are mostly the paint trophy games which I doubt will have much money going through those markets. Will take a closer look later in the afternoon.

Monday, 29 August 2011

Horse Day

I traded three games yesterday.  Newcastle v Fulham. I heavily invested in this one but was worried that I had not scalped enough 0-0 to cover me for much of the second half.  I had not reached my max limit at HT thanks to the 0-0 scalp and calculated that I could go on until 52 minutes. Thankfully Newcastle scored just after HT and I was able to manage my position for a significant profit.

I was leading the trade in TF and for the one's that didn't have the 0-0 scalp I advised to close the CS position but to leave unders as they were as the price was far lower than normal and there was not much to be gained by reducing the overs profit to a scratch. The goal came and I advised to back half of the unders lay. The second goal was scored a few minutes later members were able to exit at a nice profit. There were some members who followed the exact rules and they scratched when overs was reached. ROI 28%

The next game of WBA v Sunderland was traded via the webinar. This was a loser and we traded out at HT with an ROI of -30%.

I traded the final game on my own. It was Colon v Union. The game ended 0-2 but I had greened up soon after the first away goal for an ROI of 35%. This is a good example to show that the home team doesn't need to score to collect a profit. In fact this was my highest ROI % of the day.

Today I am putting all my focus on the horses. There are so many meetings in the afternoon that I expect liquidity will be down and hopefully a few big traders will decide to spend the day with their families which will be good for me as I trade better with less money floating about.  I will put the entire horse P&L for the day up on here.

Sunday, 28 August 2011

Saturday Disappointment

Traded one game on Friday. Ingolstadt v Rostock which was successful ROI 33%.

However yesterday I suffered the same two game loss that I experiences the previous Saturday.

Swansea v Sunderland ROI -31% - This was the second week running that Swansea let me down with another 0-0 result.
Granada v Real Betis  ROI -11% - This was small as I had scalped the 0-0 and could have gone on well into the second half but decided to exit at HT.

Despite my setback the August stats are still encouraging. 
Picks 40, Green 28, Scratch 3, Red 9 
No loss stike rate 77.5%. Loss every 4.44 picks.

I found a very interesting statistic. Bearing in mind that I trade multi games most days, the only times where I have lost two games (never lost more) in one day are:
SATURDAY 27/8 traded 2 games
SATURDAY 20/8 traded 2 games
SATURDAY 30/7 traded 2 games
SATURDAY 18/6 traded 3 games
Thursday 16/6 traded 2 games

Perhaps I should choose Saturdays as a day off!

Friday, 26 August 2011

An Excellent Evening

The evening certainly didn't pan out as I was expecting. I was going to trade the horses but I just couldn't leave the football markets alone even though I wasn't interested in the Europa competition. I just had to take a quick peek at MarketMatcher which had three Homer selections. The one that caught my eye was Dinamo Tbilisi v AEK Athens. AEK were 1-0 ahead from the first leg so Tbilisi needed to get a goal if they wanted to progress. I posted the pick on my facebook page with details of Tbilisi's recent home performances which were very encouraging. 

However, I didn't expect them to score inside the first minute. Under normal circumstances the profit (although not a big as when the lay is executed) was secured but Betfair did not suspend the markets immediately after the goal so they then suspended it for the next 35 minutes while they sorted through and eventually voided all the bets that were made after the goal. During these 35 minutes another goal to either side would have resulted in a loss of the overall trade. Thankfully this didn't happen and we eventually traded out in a far better position giving the TF members a large 72% ROI.

Because I had to keep my eye on the Tbilisi game while it was under suspension, I couldn't switch to the horses. By the time I had exited my position I was not in the mood for the horses.

There were two other Europa games where the prices qualified for the Homer which I didn't fancy but others took the plunge.
Sion v Celtic - The home team scored in the 3rd minute but the Celtic red card spoilt the usual post goal CS prices. However the profit was acceptable as like Tbilisi the lay wasn't executed. 27% ROI.
Birmingham v Nacional Madeira - The home team scored in the 15th minute and added a second before HT. The FT score was 3-0 which secured 25% ROI.

I then turned my eye towards Salzburg v Omonia Nicosia. Salzburg were 1-2 down from the first leg but a goal would see them take the advantage by the away goal. Salzburg was too strong a favourite to be a Homer pick but with the game at 0-0 on 38 minutes the prices all fell onto the Homer radar and I was able to trade the HomerActive. Salzburg scored in the 51st minute and my profit was secured with an ROI of 51%. HomerActives will always be a higher profit but can only be picked instinctively mid match.

The final Homer pick was the 12.15am game Palmeiras v Vasco da Gama. This was a Brazilian Copa 2nd leg match. The first leg was a 2-0 win to Vasco da Gama so Palmeiras needed to push for a goal to get back into the tie. The prices were just on the minimum that is acceptable but I decided to proceed with the many TF members who were still in chat and awake! We were rewarded with a home goal on 13 minutes. The game ended 3-1 and we took away an ROI of 25%.

Five Homer family trades were available and all five won. Only the three matches that I traded will be added to the spreadsheet.  I will be putting my picks on Facebook only but will report on their outcomes on here and on twitter. I have put one up for tomorrow already so If you want to be a part of my facebook community please link up with me with a message of your TF chat alias. Unfortunately if I don't see 'friends' occasionally in the 'green' room then the link will be removed.

Thursday, 25 August 2011

I traded two games yesterday.
Jubilo Iwata v Vegalta Sendia FT 1-1 loss -31.04% ROI.
Udinese v Arsenal FT 1-2 won +34.9%.

I don't fancy all those Europa games so will be having a session on the horses tonight, just like old times.

Wednesday, 24 August 2011

Udinese v Arsenal

Below is a screenshot from MarketMatcher. It has correctly stated that the Udinese v Arsenal game has all the Homer parameters. However this is just a selection tool. You must do your own research to decide whether the game has a good chance of the strat succeeding. I never play games from the Portugal or France leagues but MM will still offer you the opportunity to trade them.  Even if you don't have specific strategies, what a handy tool this is to see all the markets on one page.

We all know that Udinese need to score but will they start the game with all guns blazing or will their tactics be sedate in the first half to ensure Arsenal don't score before taking risks after HT?

I am undecided! 

If you have your own strategy then use the custom feature for MarketMatcher to find those games instantly. One payment of £39.99 will give you lifetime access to Betting System Notes including this tool and details of proven strategies.

Late Night Profit

Having returned from QPR's woeful performance, a few of us got on the late night Supercup between Botafogo v Atletico MG to trade the HomerActive. It was the first time that this strat was lead through the main chat. We jumped on in the around the 30th minute and were rewarded with a home goal just before HT.
Just going to tidy up the video I did last week and pass it to the Nugget Crew for their approval so hopefully it will be available to TF members by the weekend. 
Just reviewing my August results.
Total Homers traded = 32.
Winners = 23
Scratches = 3
Losers = 6
No Loss Strike Rate = 81%. That is one loss every 4.33 matches

Monday, 22 August 2011

More Results

What a night at TF. St.Patricks was a winner thanks to the late first half red card which gave us more time to stay in the trade beyond HT and pick up a nice profit.

A few did the HomerActive on Man.U. v Tottenham and came out smiling!

One trader went against my advice and traded the Portugal game
SC Olhanens v Vitória Setúbal and that won too.

Plenty of profit to share around for TF members. Including the nuggets recommended trade on the Man.U. game which came up trumps.  Trading doesn't have to be selfish and arrogant.

Splashing the Cash

Someone is wanting to show off their £100,000 bank size. There was only £500,000 matched before the off!

3 Wins from 3 Picks and a Rant!

My two early morning picks on Facebook were both successful.

13.30 Norwich v Stoke
14.00 Wolves v Fulham

I also traded Vasco de Gama v Fluminense in the TF chat room late in the evening for which it was successful to a 37% ROI.

That takes the Homer results for August to 28 Homers, 20 Profit, 3 Scratch, 5 Loss.

I have received a few negative comments which has left me a little bewildered and very irritated. If I had any intention of trying to sell this strategy I could perhaps understand some of it, but I am not and have no intention of doing so. This is my blog of my Sports trading journey and here I am at last suddenly making a decent amount of money on this journey (not the same journey as Jacks you understand) and quite proud that I have found something myself that works. I tested it quietly for weeks and was getting green after green and it was only after a few months when the green trend continued that I started to think I might have something that works. The win and loss are more or less the same so as long as there are more wins it's going to be profitable so I am sharing it with the TF community and have documented the results since it became an approved TF strategy.

I am documenting it for all to see as it is possible to make a success at trading. Read it or don't read it but abusive comments are totally unnecessary and it would be a shame to consider taking the blog down.

I do not just use the Homer as it is only applicable to a handful of games per week, I compliment it with other proven TF strats that I have learnt from the Nugget Crew. So if I am to be accussed of anything it can be for promoting their service. Yes Bingo and Ads run a business and I am sure they make a tidy sum for doing so........and you know what, they deserve it and good luck to them,  they work hard for their members and want them to succeed but members also need to help themselves and work hard to improve their skills. 

They changed me and others so if you want to see for yourself, they have a free 14 day trial. It makes absolutely no difference to me what you do but if you decide not to then that's your choice but  please don't moan to me about it!

Sunday, 21 August 2011

I Have Had Better Days

Well that was a disappointment. Both picks lost and the Sunderland game didn't do much better either. However with 3 losses from 23 games in August before yesterday, I can't really complain.

I mentioned on facebook that I would be trading the San Lorenzo game last night but decided not to when the 1-0 plummeted to 6.6. The game would have been a winning Homer.

Saturday, 20 August 2011

Homer EPL 20/8 Picks and Opinions

There are three qualifying EPL matches.

Naturally it is much too early in the season to evaluate any kind of form to make a strong judgment. Unfortunately we can't put the ball in the net but I feel my picks give the best opportunity for trades to be successful.

12:00pm Sunderland v Newcastle
Last time these teams met at the Stadium of Light their were no goals in the first half. There is no real evidence to suggest not to pick this game but at this stage of the season some opinions are made just with gut feeling. Mine is that this local derby will be a scrappy first half affair with limited opportunities but that is just personal opinion. Avoiding.

12:45pm Arsenal v Liverpool
If you are picking a Homer game to get value from the potential profit then this is the game. Two of our CS scores have strong prices. I have done a CS single stakes evaluation which show greens at the very high end of Homer profitability. Arsenal have their injury problems but are always strong at the Emirates. Much is expected of Liverpool this season now that KD has a full season at the helm  but they continue to be unpredictable away and have leaked three goals in each of their five away friendlies. Away EPL defeats to Aston Villa, West Brom and West Ham towards the end of last season reinforces their unpredictability. Strong Pick.

15:00pm Swansea v Wigan
Swansea score goals at home and today they are against a team that were lucky to escape the drop last season. Despite Swansea's large defeat to Manchester City, they will be fired up for their first ever EPL game in front of their home fans. Their last eight home Championship scores were 3-0, 3-0, 1-1, 3-2, 3-0, 1-1, 4-1, 4-0. Homer prices will give above average greens but not close to the Arsenal game. Good Pick.

For more detailed information about the Homer and it's progress, please follow my Facebook page. You will need to be a full member of the Trading Football Service and supply me your chat alias in order to gain access.

Click on the right for a free Trading Football 14 day trial or immediately apply for full membership to gain access to their strategy page including a detailed document of then Homer strategy with HomeLow variation. Their banner is on the right.

Or make a one off payment of £39.99 before the price rises to  Betting System Notes. Their banner is also on the right.

Please note that this is the only week I am putting my picks on my blog. From next week I will only be publishing my results.

If you have any queries, please email me.

Address is handyandyblog@yahoo.co.uk.

Stay green.

Thursday, 18 August 2011

Four from Four Homers

7.45pm Maccabi v Genk ROI 35%
9.05pm Colon v All Boys ROI 35%
11.40pm Atletico v Cruziero ROI 39%
1.15am  Racing Club v Godoy ROI 24%

Strike Rate 74%

Tuesday, 16 August 2011

Homer sweet Homer

I have had a few complaints about the marble effect behind my posts. It should have been a solid blue and has been fine up until recently. So I have now made a few changes to make it more readable. 

My football trading has been going well, particularly the blistering performance of my Homer strategy as you can see below. The great factor in this strat is that the home team doesn't necessarily need to score for a successful trade. Take yesterdays Argentina league game between Atletico and Arsenal. At half time the score was 0-3 and the Homer was already a winner. 

I don't trade Portugal league matches as they tend to be defensive games that are often still 0-0 at HT but even yesterdays game between Leiria v Academica was a winner!

You can follow my picks on Facebook but you will need to be a Trading Football member and then supply me with your chat Alias. Click on the right for a free 14 day trial. If you want access to a detailed document of the strategy then subscribe monthly to Trading Football or a one off payment to  Betting System Notes. Their banners are on the right.

Sunday, 7 August 2011

MarketMatcher -A MUST tool for all Football Traders

MarketMatcher is a fantastic tool from the Betting System Notes website that selects games to trade by either using the successful preset strats or by selecting custom price parameters. It used to take me around 20-30 minutes to study a large weekend card but with MarketMatcher it shows you in an instant. 

I was lucky enough to extensively test the tool before it was launched yesterday, particularly the Homer and I have total confidence in it's accuracy.

Even if you just back normally rather than trade, just select liquidity as 1 and select games for the next 24 hours. It will then list all the Betfair inplay games and it will be much easier than the Betfair site to click each game and see the Match Odds, Correct Score, U1.5, U2.5, U3.5, U4.5 all together on one screen. It really is a marvellous tool. 

The Betting System Notes website also has a tool for recording your football strategies so that they can be easily accessed as and when you need them. The tool comes with many strats already set up whether or not you are subscribed to any football service. If that isn't enough there are regular updates of sports trading news, videos and other tools.

There is no monthly subscription. There is just one off single payment of £39.99 to give you access to all the features. There are more tools planned which will be free to all members.

Click the banner on the right or the links in this post to take a look for yourself on what is on offer.

Thursday, 4 August 2011

The Family of Homer Strategies

Over the past 4 years I have traded many sports but my primary market has always been pre-race Horse Racing. I have made a profit from the horses but not enough compared to the hours I have put in More recently I have been trading in play which has been successful but to be honest it's too intense to be enjoyable.

I have always traded the Football markets as a secondary sport but I was always useless and losing money on a regulate basis. I used to mainly use the popular Lay the Draw strategy for small stakes but there was never a concrete structure to it to ever contemplate any decent income from it.

Then about a year ago I accidentally came across the Trading Football Markets service run by Adster and Bingo. I decided to join but was sceptical like most noobs would be trying to get on the trading bandwagon. I quickly realised that this was a decent reliable service. They trade games in their chat room but not just for lemmings to follow. They explain why they make their in play decisions and they encourage members to think for themselves.

Bingo and Ads have always been supportive but there were also a couple of others that are sadly are no longer members that used to regularly coach me late at night (when there wasn't the numbers at midnight like there are now) when they weren't trading themselves and often getting me out of a massive hole I had dug for myself. I learnt a lot from them and one year later I am making consistent profits having for the first time last month profited at over £1,000 on just my football trading.

I have developed a family of strategies called Homer listed below

HomerActive (previously named Homer30)

I tested and tweaked the Homer over a number of weeks which is now regularly played within the TF chat room. It has proved very successful. The full details of the strategy and it's HomerLow variation is posted on two sites. Trading Football and Betting System Notes. Both can be accessed by their banners on the right.

Betting System Notes is a great website which focus's on successful strategies. It includes software where you can access details of proven strategies and add others to it. It is also about to launch a new product that is a must for all football traders. I have been lucky enough to be testing it myself. There is a one time charge to access all their services. Head over to them via the banner on the right to see for yourself.

HomerActive and the brand new HomerDog will be added to the TF and BSN over the next week or so. There will also be videos explaining the strategies.

So what's in it for me? Nothing apart from the green that I am steadily building. I genuinely just want to give something back to the TF community and show that there are a very small amount of trading services that really care about it's members and genuinely want them to become successful. If it wasn't for TF I wouldn't be in the position I am.

The proof of such a good service is the fact that most experienced members have never left to continue to trade on our own. As far as I am concerned trading a football game without sharing it in TF is like eating a Big Mac without the meat!

So what has all this got to do with my first paragraph about the horses? Well I have decided to make Football my primary sport for trading. I am going to show my faith in my own strategies by trading the main leagues at much higher stakes and compliment them with the already proven strategies that Bingo, Ads and senior members have introduced with a view to becoming a full time trader.

You can follow my Homer Picks on my Facebook page. I am Handy Andy with a picture of my profile. You must be a TF member so please send me a friend request stating your chat room alias.

There are many football strategy products that are being introduced for the start of the main season but with most you are just given an ebook to get on with it yourself but with TF you are never alone.

Stay green.